Yes, Flying Internationally is About to Get More Complicated
Immunity passports and health passes: here's what to expect if you're traveling in 2021.
Welcome to the inaugural edition of The Wanderscape. For those former The Curious Ape subscribers, thank you for sticking with me. This once-a-week newsletter will shed light on how the human obsession with travel has transformed our lives, planet, and possible futures.
The TL;DR
The fastest vaccine to be produced before COVID-19 took four years.
Negative PCR Tests will continue to be the bare-minimum standard for most international travel. The U.S. will begin requiring a negative test January 26.
The U.S. Passport is not the passport with the strongest travel power—that prestige goes to Japan.
Health passes will be a thing. At a minimum, they will include PCR test results. At their strongest, they will become immunity passports.
Like all travel writers, I did a lot of flying in 2019, frequently finding my flights delayed or tickets changed, and my head pounding due to jet lag. After being grounded in 2020, all I want to do now is to be back at the airport, and bouncing from flight to flight so I can see the world again.
Of course, our massive network of airlines, trains, and cruise ships, which makes tourism possible, also helped to create the perfect network for the quick global spread of viruses. We were the victims of our own success. The return to regular travel is coming, but that timeline is still uncertain and we’re all wondering what this new normal will be.
By all measures, the arrival of vaccines at the end of 2020 broke all the records. Previously, the fastest vaccine to be produced was for the mumps and that took four years. We now have at least three effective vaccines in less than a year.
In other words, we live in a world of wonders—or nightmares, depending on how you look at it. So here’s how the arrival of these vaccinations could impact 2021.
What Won’t Change
For those who can fly internationally, the standard is generally a negative PCR COVID-19 test within 2-3 days of departure, and that can include a 10-14 day quarantine upon arrival. That is likely to stay the same while vaccinations are being dispensed, though it will depend on the destination. Quarantines make for tricky and costly travel planning—even discouraging trips—but ignoring the rules can also result in real legal jeopardy.
Just ask Skylar Mack, an 18-year old American who was jailed in the Cayman Islands for four months for breaking quarantine to see her boyfriend in a jet ski competition. He was also jailed.
Airlines will still ask if you’ve been exposed, test for fevers before flights, and require masks. Delta continues to lead that standard in the United States.
Some countries, like Costa Rica, will continue to use their newly developed health pass system, which will be an official record of a passenger’s PCR test and exposure before arrival. In some of these cases, you will be required to show evidence of travel insurance that will cover COVID-19 and potential quarantines (should you contract the disease) to eliminate the financial burden on the destination’s medical system.
Destinations may also limit travel from some states in the U.S. based on positive test rates, and even within the states the required and recommended quarantines will continue until numbers drop.
What Will Change
On Tuesday, the United States finally changed its approach to international flights and now The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention added the requirement for a negative test result for all incoming international flights beginning January 26. Previously, this only applied to those arriving from the U.K.
There are also good reasons to believe that health passes will be a standard, though existing ones right now are still in development. Current contenders for such a system include CommonPass, which is working with the World Economic Forum and The Rockefeller Foundation to provide a universal standard, as well as IATA Travel Pass, and CLEAR Health pass.
On Thursday, American Airlines announced that it will be the first airline to introduce a health passport (using VeriFLY) for all international arrivals to meet the new U.S. requirements.
The creation and role of an international health pass, however, is still highly controversial. At a bare minimum, an international health pass will be helpful for offering verified proof of a negative test. At its strongest, a standardized health pass will be a universal immunity passport, offering proof of a COVID-19 vaccination.
Given the U.S. resistance to just putting on a mask, it is hard to imagine getting its more conservative citizens behind an international record system like this.
Immunity requirements are technically not a new thing. Yellow Fever vaccinations are required for parts of Africa and South America, and Saudi Arabia requires the meningococcal vaccine for travel for Hajj or seasonal work. Most vaccinations, however, are only recommended for travel.
Qantas, Australia's national airline, has already said it will eventually require a vaccine for travel and Delta has indicated that they will probably do the same for employees. Other airlines are looking into it, but it is likely that the final decision will be up to governments, rather than airlines and airports. For example, according to Reuters, “Airports Council International, which represents airports worldwide, joined most airlines in calling for a choice between testing or vaccination, fearing a blanket rule imposing pre-flight inoculation would be as disruptive as quarantines.”
The introduction of an immunity passport will be one of the biggest debates in travel this year, and it comes with its challenges. What are the technological hurdles? What international agreement will there be on individual privacy? What about those who object for religious or philosophical reasons to vaccinations? What about those without access to vaccines right away?
For now, negative tests might be the most universal standard for a health pass over a vaccine record, but as vaccines are dispensed, this debate will be getting louder and solutions will take shape before the end of the year. That means that in 2022, the new normal for flight security will include changes that have not been seen since 9/11.
The Reality for the United States
Restoring international travel is incredibly important for global economic stability and the U.S. can’t take that lightly.
The fact is, the U.S. passport is not as impressive as it used to be. Americans have had incredible, almost unfettered access to the world through their passports, but that has changed. The power of the U.S. passport is currently at 7th place, with Japan’s being the highest level of global access—and that doesn’t include the restrictions of a pandemic. Immunity passports and new, enforced flight rules could help restore some of America’s standing in the travel world.
If 2020 changed the world, then 2021 is the year for defining what that change means for the future of travel.
Hi, I’m Brandon Withrow. I'm a freelance travel journalist—stranded by the pandemic. You’ll find me in places like The Daily Beast, Business Insider, and Sierra Magazine. Follow me on Twitter or Instagram or visit brandonwithrow.com.
Congrats on the inaugural issue! Looking forward to seeing this in my inbox.
This is very informative having all this information together. And congrats on the inaugural edition!